Plans for wars we haven't thought of yet

Back to Churchil.

It is now 1911. Three years before the WWI starts. By this stage, three years before WWI started, England has decided that Germany will attack France through Belgium. Churchill talks about the Chief of General Staff:

"The whole wall of his small room was covered by a gigantic map of Belgium, across which every practicable road by which the German armies could march for the invasion of France was painted clearly. All his holidays he spent examining these roads and the surrounding country."

In the same year, Churchill sent a memorandum to the Committee of Imperial Defence. 

These are the main points:

"1. The decisive military operations will be those between France and Germany. The German army is at least equal in quality to the French, and mobilises 2,200,000 against 1,700,000. The French must therefore seek for a situation of more equality. This will be found either before the full strength of German army has been brought to bear or after the German army has become extended. The first might be reached between the ninth and thirteen days; the latter about the fortieth."

2. The fact that during the few days in the mobilisation period the French are equal or temporarily superior on the frontiers is of no significance [...] if the French advance, they lose at once all the advantages of their own internal communications, and [...] annul any numerical advantage they may for the moment possess. The French have therefore, at the beginning of the war, no option but to remain on the defensive [...] and the choice of the day when the first main collision will commence rests with the Germans, who must be credited with the wisdom of chosing the best possible day.

 3. [...] when the German advance decisively begins, it will be backed  by sufficient preponderance of force, and developed on a sufficiently wide front to compel the French armies to retreat from their positions behind the Belgian frontier. [...] The balance of probability is that by the twentieth day the French armies will have been driven from the line of the Meuse and will be falling back on Paris and the south.

4. [...] France will not be able to end the war successfully by any action on the frontiers. She will not be strong enough to invade Germany. Her only chance is to conquer Germany in France. 

 5. The German armies will in advancing through Belgium and onwards into France  be relatively weakened by all or any of the following causes:

    By the greater losses incidental to the offensive [...] 

    By the greater employment of soldiers necessitated by acting on the exterior lines;

    By having to guard their communication through Belgium and France [...]

    By having to invest Paris (requiring at least 500,000 men against 100,000) and to besiege and mask other places, especially along the seaboard

    By the arrival of British army

    By the growing pressure of Russia from the thirtieth day [...] (Churchil estimated this is how long it will take Russia to mobilise its army)

6. Time is also required for the naval blockade to make itself felt on German commerce, industry, and food prices [...] and for these again to react on German credit and finances already burdened with the prodigious daily cost of the war. All of these pressures will develop simultaneously and progressively. [...]

7. By the fortieth day Germany should be extended at full strain both internally and on her war fronts, and this strain will become daily more severe and ultimately overwhelming, unless it is relieved by decisive victories in France. If the French army has not been squandered on precipitate or desperate action, the balance of forces should be favourable after the fortieth day, and will improve steadily as time passes. [...] Opportunities for the decisive trial of strength may then occur.

He then says that the situation will be hard on France and her success may depend on how much military support Great Britain can give. 


This is a  looong quote. But Churchill basically laid out the plans for WWI three years before its start. And got it right almost to the day.

Almost. The German advance, starting on Aug 4 2014, was halted in the Battle of the Marne, which finished on Sept 12 2014. That's 39 days - not 40, Mr Churchill. 


 The politicians know what will happen quite a while into the future

 

And make quite detailed plans. Still in 1911, three years before the start of WWI and the deployment of English troops to France:

'The railway time-tables, or graphics as they were called, of the movement of every battalion - even where they were to drink their coffee - were prepared and settled.' (p 62)


Comments

  1. Mister W22 February 2022 at 13:44

    Lovely. However I think Churchill got it right. He did say “about the fortieth“. Close enough in my book :)

    ReplyDelete

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