Rules of thumb

I always thought that politics was chaotic, full of unexpected twists and turns, and reliant of the whim of those who run things. While it must be true to some extent, it seems that the overall course of events is quite predictable.

There are rules of thumb.

I'm still reading Churchill. And he occasionally mentions principles for running Britain. Some are just remarked on in passing, while discussing bigger things. For example, the 'traditional policy of opposing whatever Continental Power for the time begin was the strongest.' (p. 37)

This explains the long history of England warring with France, then Spain, France again, and then Germany.

It also reminds me of what Machiavelli said of the Roman policy: 'The Romans, in the countries they seized, did watch these matters carefully. They established settlements, supported the weaker powers without increasing their strength, crushed the powerful, and did not allow any powerful foreigner to win prestige.' (p.12)

 

In other words, you protect your country by not allowing others to get too powerful.

 

Another principle Churchill talked about was the two-Power standard of the British navy. The navy was the island's main defense, and it was kept strong, maintaining 'an adequate superiority over the next two strongest powers' (p.14) meaning that if those two next strongest powers combined, Britain would still win.

Interestingly, he also quotes the new German navy aims from the early 1900's. This was to build a battle fleet 'of such strength that, even for the most powerful naval adversary, a war would involve such risks as to make that Power's supremacy doubtful.' So that 'it is not absolutely necessary that the German Fleet should be as strong as that of the greatest naval Power [but strong enough so that] the defeat of a strong German Fleet would so considerably weaken the enemy that, in spite of the victory that might be achieved, his own supremacy would no longer be assured by a flee of sufficient strength.'

In other words, you can beat us, but it'll kill your supremacy as well.

 

Unsurprisingly, this German policy made Britain build a fleet ' the greatest ever built by any power in an equal period.' (p. 140).


Which makes me wonder, what are the principles used to run other countries? The rules would very much differ depending on geography of a given place. But there are universal rules of thumb as well. The Prisoners of Geography book says that a border along a mountain chain is a safe one. Armies don't cross mountains well. Rivers can be crossed much more easily.

 

I'll have to think up some of these rules of thumb for Ashen. Maybe Arne would find some of these in the castle library books. Or is this too pat?

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